NFL Draft Musings

So the draft weekend is nearly upon us. Already, teams are making panic trades to beef up their pick supply--Kansas City traded away perhaps the best tight end ever to play the game, Tony Gonzalez, for a 2nd round pick in 2010, one that would probably be around the 50th overall selection. Gonzalez is no spring chicken, mind you, but to trade away a proven commodity for a late 2nd round pick is dicey at best. Teams tend to overvalue potential (untapped or otherwise, of course), and fall in love with the possibilities of things going right. This trade is the equivalent of trading in a BMW with 100,000 miles on it for a salvage title Mustang with 15,000 miles on it. Sure, if the car runs well, then you have a decent swap. But you are giving away proven performance in exchange for optimism.
I'm not saying teams shouldn't try to stock pile picks--that's generally how you improve in the league. I just think teams put too much weight on draft selections over veterans...

Speaking of which, here's yet another mock draft for the first ten picks. Why only ten? Because the 49ers have the tenth pick, so after that, who cares...

1. Detroit Lions; Matt Stafford, QB, Georgia. QBs are seldom considered the safe pick, and especially for a team whose last 1st round QB selected was Joey Harrington. But if the Lions take the long view here, they will realize that since they aren't really going anywhere next year, Daunte Culpepper can start, while Stafford learns the offense, maybe taking over around mid-season, to relieve the pressure on him. But just like when you need to give QBs weapons, you need to give WR Calvin Johnson a QB that can let him make plays. They can address the myriad of other needs later.

2. St. Louis Rams; Jason Smith, OT, Baylor. The Rams' offensive line was one of their strengths when the greatest show on turf was in its prime. But without future hall of famer Orlando Pace, and in a group decimated by injuries, they need help big time. Steven Jackson can't run if the line doesn't open holes for him. Getting Smith will help not only protect the 25 QBs the Rams have on their roster, but will also help balance the offense.

3. Kansas City Chiefs; Aaron Curry, LB, Wake Forest. The Chiefs last season were next to last in total defense. They need playmakers, espeically with no Jared Allen. Ideally, they could use a defensive end to put pressure on the QB (they were dead last with just 10 sacks as a team last year), but Curry is the next best thing--an outside LB with the speed to get to the QB.

4. Seattle Seahawks; Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech. This is where the draft gets interesting. Seattle was 28th in the league in total offense in 2008. Obviously, a big part of that was the health of Matt Hasselback. The team added TJ Houshmanzadeh, so WR is not a pressing need. But while it is tempting to drop down and take Mark Sanchez around, say, 7th or 8th, if they snag Crabtree here and team him with the Housh, they instantly have a great WR tandem. The other sensible pick would be OT Eugene Monroe, but since Walter Jones is still there, they can wait a little longer for that position. They'll need to get a QB later, though (assuming they don't trade down).

5. Cleveland Browns; Brian Orakpo, DE, Texas. Its no secret the Browns need help defensively. They were next to last in sacks, with just 17. So they go for the 2nd-best defensive playmaker, in Brian Orakpo. Team him with Kameron Wimbley and Shaun Rogers, and that should help the Browns control the line of scrimmage, much like Eric Mangini's old team, the Jets, did for him.

6. Cincinnati Bengals; Eugene Monroe, OT, Virginia. Monroe gets the nod over Andre Smith because he is the safer pick. Cincy can't afford to have Carson Palmer go down with injury again, so they take a guy who can protect the blind side, and maybe even open a running lane or two for Cedric Benson, who came on late in the year.

7. Oakland Raiders; Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri. I had Andre Smith pegged here, and I think he is the better choice over Maclin, based on the depth of the WR class this year. But when you finish dead last in passing, and you have your franchise QB poised to make a huge improvement (can't get much worse, in theory), you have to get him a legitimate #1 target.

8. Jacksonville Jaguars; Andre Smith, OT, Alabama. The Jags would have loved to get Maclin to team up with alongside Jimmy Smith--and they might be good trading partners with Seattle here, who could in theory get either Andre Smith or Mark Sanchez if they choose to fall back, while Jax could snag Crabtree. But picking where they are, Jacksonville's offensive line was a mess last year, largely due to injuries. If everyone is back, and David Garrard can be the patient, proficient pocket passer that he was in 2007, this pick really solidifies the Jags.

9. Green Bay Packers; Aaron Maybin, OLB, Penn St. The Packers' D was in the bottom third in most categories last year (including 25th in sacks), and they need someone to play opposite Aaron Kampman. Maybin is better served in a 3-4 defense, which makes him a good fit win the land of cheddar. BJ Raji would be too, in which case, expect the 49ers to swoop in and take Maybin.

10. SF 49ers; BJ Raji, DT, Boston College. As badly as the 49ers need to upgrade their offensive weapons, Raji is probably the only player available that could step in immediately and start in the 3-4 NT for SF. The 49ers could also think about Michael Jenkins here, the CB from Ohio State. That makes sense only if they move him to safety. They will likely target a WR in the 2nd round. This pick will tell you all you need to know about Mike Singletary's confidence in Alex Smith and Shaun Hill. If they pass on Mark Sanchez (assuming he is still on the board), then those two incumbents will be battling it out in the fall.