Thursday, October 1, 2009

CFB Sizzle Check, Week 4

A big, big slate of games this weekend, with plenty of story lines to get to. Once again, we'll be using our sliding scale to check the temperature of a story. Rare means the story is just being uncovered, medium means it is time to pay attention, and well done means the story is blown over. Clear? Clear. Let's do this...

Story: Sam Bradford playing this weekend. Sizzle level? Rare. Its just too early to put the reigning Heisman winner on the field, even if the Sooners need to beat Miami to still be in the BCS hunt. Shoulder injuries take a long time to heal, especially for quarterbacks. And trying to push Bradford back for one game, potentially at the expense of a lot more, is not worth the gamble. We don't know what Landry Jones will do on Saturday, but kudos to Bob Stoops for not rolling the dice.

Story: Big East making a comeback. Sizzle level? Medium rare. West Virginia's Noel Devine reminded us of how good he was earlier in his career with a 200 yard performance against Colorado Thursday night. Couple that with Cincinnati's impressive win at Oregon State-- just ask USC about playing in Corvalis-- and the Bearcats are at the very least worth keeping an eye on. South Florida, Pitt and UCONN are all off to good starts, meaning the Big East may just crawl out of the BCS dog house this season. And if so, Big Ten, we're looking at you.

Story: Michigan making a run at the Big Ten title. Sizzle level? Well done. This story has not been overdone yet, but let's stick a fork in it while the Wolverines are undefeated and on the rise. Michigan has played very well thus far in 2009, but the bulk of their work is still in front of them. Starting Saturday in East Lansing, the Maize and Blue have only one game remaining on their schedule that is automatic: a non-conference tilt with Delaware State. No, not the Delaware Blue Hens. The Delaware State Hornets, who are below 500 in the MEAC (including a 10 point loss at Delaware). After Michigan's flair for the dramatic this year, its tempting to label them a team of destiny. Or, more likely, it could be they used up all their good fortune in September, and will go downhill faster than the thermostat in Ann Arbor this fall.

Story: Pac-10 balance of power shifting in favor of California. Sizzle level? Medium well. People have been waiting for a team other than USC to take home the conference title, and 2009 appeared to be the year, with USC in an obvious transition. Problem is, even if USC loses two conference games *gasp*, there does not appear to be another team consistent enough to avoid three losses. The bloom is off the rose in Berkeley. As much as they impressed against Maryland and at Minnesota, they were flatter than Kate Moss against Oregon in Eugene. Careful with that joke-- it's an antique.
The Ducks were below average against Boise State and at home against Purdue, but seem to be getting their sea legs. They get USC in Eugene on Halloween, and assuming they can sidestep a potential pitfall at UCLA and Washington, the Ducks could be in line for a top five ranking in time to take on the boys from Troy.

Story: Latest mid-major flavor of the week: Houston. Sizzle level? Medium rare. The Cougars have a fantastic offense, powered by Case Keenum. The junior QB has looked fantastic this season, and the Cougars have a great combination for BCS success. The check list:
1. Knock off a preseason power, preferably on the road, in order to put your program on the map. After winning in Stillwater over a then-top 5 Oklahoma State, check.
2. Schedule non-conference games against lower teams from powerful conferences, allowing the media to say, "Check these guys out. They walked into the (SEC) and (Big 12), weren't afraid to play anyone that would face them, and came out with a W." This one is pending a win at Mississippi State, but following a dramatic win over Texas Tech, things are heading in the right direction.
3. Run the table in a mid-level conference with schools that people know, but not too many that might overpower you. Conference USA is definitely not a powerhouse, but you remember East Carolina and Tulsa from their 2008 success. This of course is the hardest part for the Cougars, but the challenge remains. And thanks to those early wins over Okie State and Texas Tech, the Houston Cougars are ranked high enough that if they win, they're in for a BCS birth.

So those are your sizzle tests for this weekend. And if you want to examine Heisman darkhorses, keep an eye on the running backs in Strawberry Canyon. Jahvid Best and Joe McKnight are the stars of the show for their respective team. If one of them can shine under the lights, expect the Heisman needle to move at least a little.