Tuesday, September 22, 2009

CFB Temperature Check

Now that we have a few weeks under our belt, let us check in on some developing stories around the nation, and see which ones are ready to eat, and which are past their prime.
We'll do this with a good old fashioned temperature reading, like for steak. The more well done, the more played out. But if it is rare, there is still some juiciness to be had...

Starting off on the west coast, the story line that USC is the most dominant team in the Pac-10: Medium rare. USC seemingly always gets tripped up in a conference match up, usually on the road. But can it happen more than once, and could this be the year the Trojans get knocked off their lofty perch atop the conference? Perhaps-- but only if Cal can develop consistency with their passing game. Jahvid Best is amazing, garnering serious dark horse consideration after his 5 TD performance at Minnesota. But ask any Bear backer about QB Kevin Riley, and the answer always starts with them leaning back, a deep breath, and a "well, the thing is...". Not a good sign. And neither Oregon schools appear up to the task, so Pete Carroll and company are still the team to beat-- for now.

Moving into the middle, how about a non-BCS party crasher? Well done. Boise State's resume is decent enough, but their struggles at Fresno State combined with Oregon's unsteady play does not bode well. The Ducks, though, did beat Utah, sinking the Utes in the process. As for BYU, they played Florida State on what felt like turn back the clock night in Provo. The Seminoles crushed the Cougars and looked as unstoppable as they were ten years ago, hanging 54 on the Mormons. So much for that BCS bubble--TCU is still alive, but that is about it.

Let us head to the Big 12; how about Oklahoma's season being over after Sam Bradford's shoulder injury? Medium. Landry Jones fared much better this past Saturday, tossing a school record 6 touchdowns for the Crimson and Cream. But they have a tough game in two weeks in Coral gables (more on that in a sec). Even if Bradford figures to be in the mix by the time the Sooners hit the meat of their schedule, that early season loss to BYU looks a little worse after the Cougars got clocked at home to FSU. OU is not likely to get the benefit of the doubt as it did last year. Then again, if they run the table the rest of the way home, they stand a pretty good chance of heading out to Pasadena.

Speaking of BCS futures, does Miami's stand a chance of being in the mix? Rare. Jacory Harris is very good for the Hurricanes. And they play in a soft ACC conference. But Miami has back to back games at Virginia Tech then at home against the aforementioned Sooners. "Da U" still has a ways to go, but the they can see the top of the mountain from where they are.

Lastly, what are the chances of Notre Dame finishing with ten wins? Burnt to a crisp. The Irish play a surprisingly difficult schedule this year, without many gimmies in sight. Jimmy Clausen does appear to be developing well, but turf toe has a way of lingering. Deion Sanders said he was never the same after he got that injury. I suspect 7 wins to be well within reach of the Irish, but that wet-paper-towel defense needs to improve greatly.

Tuesday, September 15, 2009

What to do with Michael Crabtree?

With the 2009 regular season already underway, 49er fans have to wonder why their top draft pick, Michael Crabtree, is still unsigned. When Andre Smith inked his deal with the Bengals about two weeks before the season started, many posited that Smith (the only other unsigned draft pick) would provide the impetus for Crabtree and the Niner brain trust to come back to the table. While Mike Singletary says the organization may up their offer to Crabtree, other reports say that the dollar offer may actually be decreasing, as Crabtree misses more and more time. Either way, there has been one severe monkey wrench thrown into everything: Al Davis.
I feel most NFL fans would agree that wherever there is strife, the Raiders cannot be far behind. And currently, San Francisco can thank their neighbors across the Bridge for gumming up the works with Crabtree. When the Autumn wind blew down and took Darrius Heyward-Bey instead of Crabtree with the seventh overall pick back in August, perhaps they were not so inept as everyone thought at the time. Granted, Heyward-Bay has not exactly lit the world afire thus far (Louis Murphy definitely has had a bigger impact there). The point, however, is that DHB is on the field, while Crabtree is not.
The Red Raider's reluctance to agree to terms stems largely from Heyward-Bey's contract. The Maryland product agreed to a 5 year deal with the Silver and Black which included 23 million bucks guaranteed. Crabtree has been insulted with a mere pittance of 16 million guaranteed, according to unconfirmed reports.
If you go by draft position, Crabtree's deal (including incentives), could be within an Anchor Steam or two of the exact amount given to the pick in front of Crabtree, Packers defensive lineman BJ Raji. Crabtree, though, insists he was the best wide receiver in the draft, and should not have to take less money than any other receiver selected in front or behind him.
In this game of chicken, neither side can afford to blink. From Crabtree's perspective, his only other option is to pull a JD Drew, and go back into next year's draft. However, the odds of him being taken that high a year out of the game, with character issues to boot, do not bode well. There are two examples that come to mind, specifically Maurice Clarett and Mike Williams. While Williams was still a top ten pick in the 2005 draft, not only has he been a bust (out of the league within three years, 2 career touchdowns), but he also did not have the cloud of sign-ability hanging over him. Maybe Crabtree won't spiral down into sticking up bar patrons in back alleys, but still-- the situation is not a winner.
While the stakes are not quite as high for the 49ers, they also have a lot riding on these negotiations. After watching their offense throughout the preseason and this past Sunday, their passing attack has the teeth of a gummy worm. None of San Francisco's receivers are more than an afterthought by scouts. The team is in a similar spot to where they were coming off a promising 2006 season. That 7-9 teaser was followed up with a 5-11 clunker, with no cash rebate in sight. SF cannot afford another step backwards, and passing on Crabtree over money will not help their cause.
So where do we go from here? It really is up to Crabtree--he has tried his best to hold out for a better deal, but given all of the time he has missed thus far, he should think long and hard about signing. Even if he thinks he can get more money next year (which is far from a lock, even if 2010 might be uncapped), he is giving away one year of earning potential. And in a league that stands for Not For Long, that is a risky proposition-- unless your name is Al Davis.

Monday, September 14, 2009

Welcome Back, Gus Johnson. We've missed you

Tell me again why Gus Johnson doesn't do college football games? You mean to tell me his energy, presence and ability to heighten the drama could not be utilized on Saturdays as well? You will not find an announcer more genuinely enthusiastic about sports than Gus Johnson--at least not this side of the Rio Grande (Andres Cantor is probably in a class of his own).
Johnson had the call of Brandon Stokely's game-winning touchdown catch for the Broncos this past Sunday, and had more emotion in his voice than the Broncos' radio crew. He has no shortage of great games on his resume; his work in March Madness is legendary. But what makes Gus Johnson such an incredible announcer is how he can come across as a professional fan. His thought process is that of a fan's, not an announcer or analyst. First and foremost, he brings excitement. He could be calling curling, and I would tune in and chuck the remote (he's sweeping... SWEEPING... SWEEPING!! Oh, young fella! Look at that stone go! Ha ha!!!). If NBC wants to up the ante for the Olympics in Vancouver this winter, tab Gus Johnson, give him three months to learn the skeleton or bobsled event, and let the ratings magic ensue.
Week one in the NFL had its fair share of drama, but thankfully, the stars aligned once again for Gus Johnson to give us the best play of the 2009 season. Even better: we've sixteen more weeks for Gus to try and top it.

Sunday, September 6, 2009

trOUble in Norman...

Very interesting day in college football. It is always crazy how one play in the first game of the season, when teams are still trying to work out the kinks, can define a season.
Take, for example, Navy playing at the Horseshoe. They played a great game against Ohio State and had them on the ropes. They scored a touchdown with about 2 minutes left to pull within two points, thus having a chance to tie the game with a two-point conversion. If they make it and force the game into overtime, who knows--maybe they pull the upset. But at the least, from Ohio State's perspective, getting pushed to overtime by Navy in their home opener would be a scarlet letter on the scarlet and gray's resume. Instead, however, the Midshipmen abandoned ship with the running game, and went to a spread formation and went with a passing play. The result? A pick-two, with Ohio State wriggling off the hook and few people remembering how close this game was by November.

The day started off watching Greg Paulus at Syracuse, who had one play that for Syracuse fans is something on which to build. Paulus had a pump-fake, then delivered a well-placed 29 yard touchdown pass to Mike Williams. Everyone seemed to agree that he was "managing the game", which is essentially code for trying not to make a mistake. Skip to overtime, and the one play for the Cuse that stood out was a Paulus interception at the goal line, which essentially crushed the Orange.

But by the end of the day, clearly the biggest play of the 2009 season took place in Dallas, Texas. Sam Bradford's shoulder got pinned between the turf of Jerry Jones' palace and a massive defensive lineman, and as a result, the Sooner season gave way. He sprained the AC joint in his shoulder, and as anyone who has had that happen can attest, shoulder injuries take a very long time to heal--just ask Drew Brees (back when he was with the Chargers). Without Bradford, OU hung in against BYU, but in the end slipped up on coverage late, and Max Hall (cousin of former Dallas Cowboy QB Danny White) stormed the Mormons down the field for a game-winning drive, capped off by finding McKay Jacobson wide open in the end zone. OU may not be done for the year, but I would take the over on 3 games missed by Bradford...

Other key plays from the weekend: Oklahoma State's Dez Bryant with a full-extension grab for a 46 yard touchdown against Georgia. That play got the Cowpokes rolling, as they stifled Georgia late to win 24-10.
Mark Ingram's touchdown run in the fourth quarter of the Tide's win over Virginia Tech. Granted, that didn't seal the win. But Ingram had 150 yards on the ground for Alabama, a team expected to struggle without Glenn Coffee. Greg McElroy was nothing special at QB, but given Ingram's 5.8 yards per carry Saturday night, the Tide looks poised to defend its SEC West title.

Heisman watch: given Sam Bradford is most likely not going to repeat, a few box scores worth noting:
Jahvid Best: 10 carries, 137 yards, 2 TDs in the first 6 minutes of the game (44 seconds apart, no less). Best didn't even play most of the 3nd half.
Tim Tebow: 10/15, 188 yds, TD (plus 1 TD on 2 yards rushing). The Gators won 62-3, so obviously Tebow took it easy.
Colt McCoy: 21/29, 317 yds, 2 TD (1 INT). The Longhorns had their way with Louisiana-Monroe, although McCoy didn't run the way he did last year, when he was the team's leading rusher.

Thursday, September 3, 2009

LeGarrette Blount is not to be trifled with

What a shame that the only excitement from the Smurf Turf showdown came from a sucker punk after the game. LeGarrette Blount certainly was fired up--I'm guessing he's a bit of a talker on the field, but does not enjoy getting called out when the Ducks lay an egg.
Neither team looked sharp (combined for 5 TOs), but credit Boise for doing a better job on both sides of the ball. Their first TD happened because of a great pick up block by the running back, which gave Kellen Moore the time to make the throw. On defense, they flummoxed Jeremiah Masoli, and clearly frustrated Blount. Although I will say, that was a legit punch he threw-- even if the guy he hit was clearly caught off guard and off balance, a dude that size does not go down easily. Of course, not a good idea to throw blows, regardless of what happens on the field. Hey Champ--maybe you should stop talking for a while. Maybe sit the next couple plays out, you know?

As for the other national game, South Carolina looks about like they have for the past four or five years. Great defense, but the offense struggles big time. Steven Garcia just does not look like a big time college QB under pressure.
But both South Carolina and Boise State are undefeated, with wins over known teams. As for Oregon, expect their offense to sputter even more without Blount for the foreseeable future. They didn't pick up a first down until halfway through the third quarter. A credit to the defense that the game didn't get out of hand earlier--at least until it literally got out of hand courtesy of LeGarrette "Not-so-sharp" Blount.
He was even ready to go into the crowd and go toe-to-toe with the fans. Yikes.
Ironic that it was assistant coach Scott Frost that held Blount back--if you may recall, Frost allegedly got beaten up by teammate Lawrence Phillips while at Nebraska. Blount may not be to that level of crazy, but just in case, let's hide the car keys and keep him away from the IM field. Just to play it safe...

Tuesday, September 1, 2009

Fearless 49er Football Forecast

Now that the calendar has flipped to September, it becomes socially acceptable to mention football. The summer months may belong to baseball according to the schedule keepers, but the National Football League still has a way of keeping itself in the news cycle-- and that is even without the Brett Favre saga.
Rather than focus on number four though, let us turn our attention the the NFC West. A quick glance proves that this division is the best case of parity in the NFL. Granted, it is akin to the parity between Bud Light, Miller Lite and Coors Light-- not exactly the creme de la creme--but still, it appears up for grabs in 2009.
The Arizona Cardinals caught fire at the right time in 2008, but are staring down the barrel of the dreaded Super Bowl hangover, a curse so mighty not even Tom Brady couldn't sidestep its wrath. The Seahawks' collective fate was sealed with Matt Hasselbeck's bad back, as was the Rams with their total lack of a defense. What of the 49ers, you ask? Well I'm glad you brought them up, because really this is just an excuse to preview the 49ers in depth.
The 49ers are unproven in a lot of areas, starting with the coaching staff. Assuming Mike Singletary can keep his pants on, though, he does have some talent o work with. The backfield should be the strength of the team--and not just because of Frank Gore. Fullback Moran Norris returns, to help pave the way for Gore much like he did when the former Miami product gained nearly 1700 yards on the ground. Also, rookie Glenn Coffee has looked good in the preseason, and should keep Gore fresh.
But with Michael Crabtree still holding out, the question remains: what of the 49er passing attack? Shaun Hill won the starter's job by stinking slightly less than Alex Smith this fall. But with yet another offensive coordinator in SF this year (6th OC in as many seasons), everyone had to start over, yet again.
On defense, the Niners will stick with the 3-4 defense Mike Nolan brought in, and they have a star in ILB Patrick Willis. What they need is more consistent play from the defensive line, especially in the middle. Isaac Sopoaga, Kentwan Balmer, and Aubrayo Franklin have all taken a crack at it, but they still need a big body to clog that middle, much the way the Ravens had Tony Siragusa when Nolan was in Baltimore. SF needs a guy that looks like he would get stuck trying to walk through a doorway.
The D line is not the only area in need of a touch up. SF was the only team in the league to get zero interceptions out of their safeties last fall. This is akin to having a wing man who insists on eating chicken wings and garlic bread all night; not much help.
As for special teams, the Niners are above average. Andy Lee is a good punter, and Joe Nedney is back yet again. Allen Rossum even the Niners in the top ten in the league for punt returns, which is important since field position would seem to be important for a team that can't sustain drives.
The bottom line with San Francisco is that they need two things: a healthy offensive line, and steady play from Shaun Hill. They need to grind out games and keep their defense from wearing down in the second half. They have the personnel, but so do most teams in the NFL, if everything breaks right. Working in their favor is the fact that if there is one division where a little luck goes a long way, the NFC West is it. So should San Francisco get back on track, it could find itself flipping the calendar to 2010 to schedule a playoff game. That would be something to talk about.